Iowa
Everyone’s talking about the Caucus results, and so will I. First off, why is this tiny state given so much weight in the primary process? Same goes for New Hampshire. We have the oddest election system I can think of where two tiny states have such a major role in determining who the nominations are for the rest of the country.
Let’s start with the Democrats. Obama won big. As everyone said, change won last night - on both sides. Obama has been underestimated since the beginning by so many people. I think he has a good chance. He’s likeable, speaks from his heart, and is authentically a change agent. If he does happen to become the Democrat nominee, (which is still no where close to being resolved yet) my prediction is that he will win in the fall. One positive of that would be the political death of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Americans have moved passed racial differences, it’s time for the conversation to change.
Edwards got a boost last night beating Hillary. He still has to do well in New Hampshire to stay alive.
Hillary is still very much alive and could still sustain a third place finish in New Hampshire. She’ll have to start winning some states after that though to stay viable.
On the Republican side - God help us if Mike Huckabee wins the nomination. I don’t think that’s likely. Huckabee appeals to one group - Evangelical socially conservative Christians. That’s not going to take you to the White House by itself. Once we get past New Hampshire, we’ll start to see some real results on the Republican side. In one sense I glad that Pennsylvania doesn’t have a primary until April, because there is so much wrong with so many of the Republican candidates.
One last comment - I was amused by the coverage of the results last night. I watched both ABCnews and Charlie Rose. The contempt that Huckabee raises among the elite media is amusing to watch. Not the same treatment of Obama or any of the D’s who they clearly saw as “real” candidates.